Malaysia Matters Podcast

Complications from the fighting in the Philippines, and anti-terrorism, efforts continues to impact Malaysia:

Malaysia has followed through on promises to deport illegal immigrants, sending more than 10,000 Filipino refugees back to their war-torn homeland. The move came as Philippine President Gloria Arroyo sought to reassure the U.S. that Manila will restart talks with Muslim separatists seeking to establish a homeland in the country’s troubled south.

The numbers were well short of expectations after authorities boasted more than 100,000 could be sent packing, but were enough to raise eyebrows among regional analysts who believe forcing impoverished civilians back into a zone shattered by civil war, Islamic militancy and terrorism will do little to resolve longstanding issues.

State Secretary for Sabah Sukarti Sukiman said that 14,628 illegal immigrants have been forcibly repatriated to their country of origin since August, including 10,560 Filipinos. A further 3,846 Indonesians and 222 others were ordered out, with deportations carried out on a weekly basis.

There seems to be some disagreement about whether these refugees include Islamic militants or not:

Washington has invested heavily in the southern Philippines, backing a negotiated settlement with the MILF while attempting to weed out Islamic militants from the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and Indonesian-based radicals Jemmah Islamiya (JI), who have used Mindanao as a base for more than a decade. Military and intelligence sources widely believe militants criss-cross between Mindanao and the tiny island of Tawi Tawi, then into Malaysia through Sandakan and Tawau and onto Sulewesi in Indonesia.

Those deported from Malaysia over the last four months were herded by local Philippine authorities to Tawi Tawi as opposed to Zamboanga, considered the normal port of call for immigration.

Sources in Mindanao said this was largely due to fears that Islamic militants were among those being forced out of Malaysia after Kuala Lumpur launched its crackdown aimed at registering or throwing out illegal immigrants and refugees. Those number more than 400,000 in Sabah, which covers north Borneo, and most are Muslims who fled the fighting.

Bali-based academic and researcher John McDougall doubts this effort will stop Islamic militants:

“The idea of sending refugees back home is ridiculous,” he said. “Islamic militants are well trained at avoiding the military, police and customs, they know how to sneak around. It’s the poor chumps who don’t know, who cross borders and work for carrots to feed their families — they’re the ones who get caught and deported.”

Reuters India picks up what seems to be the developing conventional wisdom: that Anwar Ibrahim promised more than he could deliver and not faces a much longer road to potential power than was once thought.  The article argues that it could take until 2012-2013:

After a botched bid to oust the government in September, Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim will likely have to bide his time until elections in 2012-13 before making another bid for power.

From watershed elections in March to his triumphant return to parliament after a decade’s absence, Anwar dominated the headlines. Even his arrest and trial on fresh sodomy charges failed to thwart his campaign to topple the government by his self-imposed deadline of Sept. 16.

Victory seemed within his grasp when the government apparently felt compelled to ship 40 MPs to Taiwan on a “study trip” in mid-September to prevent them from defecting to Anwar’s camp and thus giving him a majority in parliament.

The deadline passed. Financial turmoil swept the globe, and with an economic slowdown looming, voters in this Asian country of 27 million people suddenly had more immediate worries than Malysia’s chronic political intrigue.

Now the 61-year-old Anwar, whose People’s Justice Party holds its annual convention this weekend, has to explain why he is not addressing the meeting as the new prime minister of Malaysia.

Reuters also echos what others have been saying regarding what seemed to turn things around for the government:

Abdullah’s National Front coalition, which has ruled uninterrupted for 51 years, stopped being transfixed by Anwar and started making policies to deal with an economy that is expected to grow by only 1.5 percent next year from 5.4 percent this year.

Najib, 55, will take office in March when he becomes president of the United Malays National Organisation, the dominant party in the 13-party National Front.

Najib, who is deputy premier and finance minister, has taken the fight to Anwar by linking him to unpopular measures proposed by the International Monetary Fund when Anwar was finance minister during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, while projecting an aura of economic competence himself.

Drafting policies aimed at the critical issues of the day and projecting competence goes a long way in politics.  And Anwar’s bluffs about taking power seemed to weaken his image and stall his momentum.  Right now he seems to have lost his advantage:

“There’s a widespread acceptance that Anwar will no longer take over the country,” said an investment analyst at a foreign bank in Singapore. “Being PM is out of the question right now.”

“Najib is reinforcing his power base. He’s the new face of Malaysia,” he said.

According to Baradan Kuppusamy it is:

Despite these successes, the national standing of the undisputed leader of PKR and the Opposition Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim took a hit following the failure to topple the Government by the Sept 16 deadline.

That and the sharp drop in fuel prices and the firmness of the Umno succession from Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to his deputy Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, has taken the sting out of Anwar’s campaign to convince the people that the country was better off with him (Anwar) as the Prime Minister.

The Anwar-led Opposition has also failed to table and carry through a vote of no-confidence against Abdullah in Parliament.

They still have until about mid-December to carry out the promise although curiously, no opposition MP is talking about it any more.

Taken together, these developments mean that politics is taking a back seat and with that Anwar’s overarching influence over national politics is beginning to wane when compared to the feverish expectations gripping the country in the run-up to Sept 16.

The excitement generated by the Umno elections aside, the dominant issue now is the economy and how we are going to survive the contagion effect of a global recession.

And like any good politician, Anwar is fighting to adjust to the new conditions.  An article in the New Straits Times announces: Anwar wants talks on economy.  But even here he is struggling:

Opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said the finance minister should take the initiative to do this in Parliament or in a roundtable discussion.

“We are here to engage and assist,” he said at the Parliament lobby yesterday after his motion to discuss the economy was rejected by Deputy Dewan Rakyat Speaker Datuk Ronald Kiandee.

He had called for an adjournment of the House to discuss the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development World Investment Report 2008 on the outflow of foreign direct investment of RM38 billion. The inflow was RM29 billion last year, resulting in a negative FDI of RM9 billion.

He said the outflow had been happening since 2005 and if this continued, it could cause a contraction in the economy, a decline in gross domestic products and unemployment.

There seems to be a growing sense that Anwar has lost his momentum.  I guess we will find out in the next few months if that is true.

Here is an interesting development in Malaysian state government.  Pahang is hiring bloggers - and they’re pensioners:

The Pahang government has appointed three pensioners as bloggers to thwart slanderous comments and allegations posted on the Internet.

State Information, Science, Technology and Innovation Committee chairman Datuk Mohd Sharkar Shamsudin said the bloggers, who would be paid allowances, would be provided with computers and the Internet access in their homes.

The pensioners can capitalise on their experience to explain the actual situation to the people besides providing feedbacks and opinions to the government, he told reporters after attending the Senior Citizens Day organised by the Pahang Chapter of the Malaysian Government Pensioners’ Association here Saturday.

Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim sought to postpone the Malaysian budget for 2009 temporarily, in order to  to debate a UN report on Malaysia’s foreign direct investment outflow.  Though the move was rejected,  he’s obviously going to keep hitting on economic unsecurity as a theme:

Naïve, simplistic, inexperienced in economic management and engaged in a zero sum game were some of the unflattering terms he threw at the government’s economic team led by Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak.

“I wish him luck because he’s going to need it. No one will be immune from the financial crisis sweeping the world,” Anwar warned in a talk entitled, ‘The Malaysian economic agenda’s response to the global economic crisis’ in Kota Kinabalu…. “I don’t want to be accused of painting too gloomy an economic picture but we are in fact looking at an extended period of slow growth, high inflation and high unemployment.”

As was blogged earlier here, its going to be difficult for Anwar to form an opposition that topples Najib if he becomes PM in March, so Anwar could try to make another push ahead of that date. After that, its not until the Sarawak state elections in 2010 for the next electoral referendum.

John Teo in the New Straits Times uses the recent US election as a lens with which to view Anwar Ibrahim’s battle to become prime minister:

IF the US elections were all about turning battleground states “red” or “blue” by the Democrats and Republicans, Malaysia may be getting its own battleground state here in Sarawak.
The Land of the Hornbills remains the only state where state and general elections are not held simultaneously.

With his ambition to become prime minister by the last Malaysia Day thwarted, opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s next best shot at capturing the national government before the next general election may be the Sarawak state elections in 2010.

Like most battleground states, the fight won’t be easy and the key is convincing swing voters:

On the surface, Sarawak may appear an impregnable Barisan Nasional fortress. In the March 8 general election, the state lost only one of its 30 parliamentary seats to the opposition and, thus, held the balance of national power.

Anwar’s strategy must be to exploit a populace growing tired of a state government featuring practically the same line-up in every election.

If he succeeds in winning the state government, the parliamentary equation he has been seeking may be within his grasp.

He is good at exploiting the soft underbelly of the state BN: the volatile Dayak vote.

The Dayak electorate has not been able to harness its large population into putting one of its own in the chief minister’s chair since the early years of Malaysia, mainly because its political strength has been dissipated by splits and infighting.

Even the themes match up with US politics:

He must know that the strongest card the opposition will play is the theme of “change” it used to such devastating effect in the March polls, and which US President-elect Barack Obama used to capture not just America’s mood but the entire world’s.

If the state BN does not change, this may play into the opposition’s hands.

At the same time, the global economic slowdown, the full force of which is expected to hit the state next year, may make short shrift of any claims of the benefits of continuing with the tried-and-tested state administration.

Sarawak’s next state elections will be keenly watched. State politicians will find out what effects the March general election will have had on state voters. National politicians will want to divine how the national electorate will vote in the next general election. The stakes are high for the state and the country.

Interesting how similar politics can often be around the world.

Access Malaysia Today has an overview of The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Forecast on Malaysia.  The forecast worries about increased political instability and reports mixed economic news:

There have been two downgrades - in the political stability and legal and regulatory risk categories - in the latest review of Malaysia’s operational risk model.

The fate of Anwar Ibrahim, the leader of the opposition party, Pakatan Rakyat, could spark large-scale social unrest in Kuala Lumpur, the capital, which could spread to other major cities on peninsular Malaysia.

[. . .]

As a result, we have increased the political stability risk score by five points, from 35 to 40.

The economic news is mixed:

There have been opposing movements in the underlying indicators of the macroeconomic risk category. As a result, the category score remains the same, at 15.

On the one hand, real GDP is expected to slow to 3.1% in 2009, as economic growth in Malaysia’s major export markets slows significantly in that year. Growth is expected to remain sluggish in 2010. On the other hand, the government has been cutting the administered price of fuel in recent months and is expected to continue this trend over the short term as international oil prices continue to fall.

Weak domestic demand coupled with persistent falls in the price of commodities, non-commodities and industrial raw materials will exert downward pressure on overall consumer prices. We expect consumer price inflation to average 2.4% in 2009.

As was noted yesterday, the government is attempting to balance stability with liberalization.  Finding the right mix will be critical.

Some interesting analysis and opinion on Anwar Ibrahim’s strategy to gain power in Malaysia from Kazi Mahmood.  Keep in mind that Mahmood has a distinct perspective on the politics he is covering.  His long bio page includes this rather unique characterization of his focus:

His expertise today is concentrated on analyzing the situation in the Islamic world, and on the impact of the US led war on terror, which he calls a war against Islam instead. He believes there is a clash of civilizations that is taking shape with the US insistence to interfere in the affairs of the Islamic world. World Futures on line or WFOL as he calls it has been instituted to counter the lies which the US is spreading about Islam.

So keep that in mind while reading the following analysis.  But it is important to try and understand the role that Islamic parties might play in bringing Anwar to power and what they will expect as part of that coalition.

Mahmood argues that Anwar’s inability to consider the wishes of Muslims has undermined his ability to gain a majority:

While the BN were feeling the heat of the opposition campaign to dislodge it from power after more than 50 years of rule, the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) were also taken by a storm that shocked the supporters of the PKR and of the Democratic Action Party (DAP). The Party Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) was being courted by the Umno and offers were being made to create a new ‘Islamic’ alliance in the country to prevent the loss of Malay-Muslim political power.

The PAS was not in agreement with Anwar’s original plans for take over. The leaders of the Islamic party certainly knew how the former jail bird planned to arrest power from Abdullah Ahmad Badawi but the glitches that existed in the plan put them off. The fact that most of the MP’s willing to jump ship from the BN to join the PR were non-Muslims would have created a situation of great unrest in the country among Malays-Muslims. The Muslims would not want a regime headed by a Malay but run by non-Muslims in general. The number of MP’s of Islamic faith within the PR became an important question that Anwar could not tackle.

The September 16 date clashed with dates that are important in the Islamic calender, such as the Nuzul Quraan. The Muslims in Semenanjung Malaysia felt Anwar was being ’sarcastic’ and were showing ‘disrespect’ to the Muslims by repeatedly calling for a change of regime in Malaysia on that fatal day for the opposition grouping. The PKR failed to rally the majority of MP’s to take power based on the predictions and the landmark date set by Anwar Ibrahim himself.

The month of Ramadan in Malaysia is not the same as those in Afghanistan or Iraq and Somalia where war is still ravaging the countries and disturbing the fasting month of the Muslims. It is a peaceful, joyful and enriching month with prayers and recitations across the Muslim community in Malaysia. Setting the target date to take power by overthrowing the ruling regime – a Malay regime by all means – was a mistake by Anwar.

He gave more importance to the date when Sabah and Sarawak effectively joined Malaya to form Malaysia and in the process offended many Muslims who would have otherwise supported his plans to throw Umno out of power. The date could have differed from the September 16^th date says critics of Anwar Ibrahim who added that it might have been different had Anwar waited patiently for his time to make a breakthrough.

The relationship between Anwar and PAS has been covered here before, but it continues to bear watching.  His impatience seems to have prevented him from solidifying his alliance with the Islamic Party, or using it to his advantage, but it is likely if he is to gain a majority this will change.

The question then becomes: what will PAS and other Islamicists demand in order to join that coalition?

An underlying tension in Malaysia is the relationship between Malays and non-Malays in regards to whats been called “the social contract between the races” by blogger Wong Chun Wai. Apparently, feeling political pressure, members of the political opposition to UMNO are trying to lessen the tension around the issue:

PKR adviser Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said DAP adviser Lim Kit Siang, PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang and he, had signed the agreement on Sept 8 as proof that all three parties would uphold Malay rights.

This is a reaction to what many Malays believe:

… that if the PKR-Pas-DAP coalition comes to power at Federal level, their special privileges, the official status of Islam, Bahasa Malaysia as the national language and the status of the Malay Rulers will be dismantled.

The issue is not likely to go away anytime soon. Though Anwar Ibrahim and Pakatan Rakyat have been able to garner nearly 50 percent in the popular vote of the GE, it is mostly due to overwhelming support from Chinese and Indian voters, while Malays remain the largest voter block:

In the March 8 elections, a clear majority of Chinese and Indians voted for Pakatan Rakyat. This trend has solidified and in a survey done in August-September, only slightly above 30 per cent of non-Malays polled said that they would vote for Barisan Nasional. The support among the Malays for BN was close to 60 per cent. In the same survey by the Merdeka Centre, the level of support for Anwar was the lowest among the Malays.

Keeping Malaysia’s economy growing continues to be the focus of Najib Razak:

Malaysia is open to taking additional measures to boost the economy, Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak said on Tuesday, days after the government waived import duties on raw materials and unfinished goods.

Najib, who is also Malaysia’s finance minister, said he was reasonably confident that the country would meet its economic growth targets for 2008 and 2009.

‘We are very open to additional measures that can be taken from time to time. Obviously we are watching and monitoring the situation very very carefully,’ he told reporters.

Razak seems to recognize that gradual liberalization is the best strategy for keeping Malaysia growing in these uncertain economic times:

In an effort to revive the stock market, which has fallen almost 40 percent this year, Najib said last week he would relax ownership rules that reserve 30 percent of companies for ethnic Malays.

However, he said on Tuesday a final decision has yet to be made.

‘There is no announcement in that regard. We are open. As I said it has to be a pace of liberalisation that we are comfortable with,’ he said.

‘There is a need for us to be competitive globally. There is need for us to examine how we can overcome the current financial crisis. Gradual liberalisation is something that we will consider.’

Earlier this month, Najib, who will become prime minister in March, shifted almost $2 billion in spending to infrastructure and tax cuts from savings in fuel subsidies.

The United State is an important trading partner with Malaysia and efforts to increase investment and spur economic growth would benefit both countries.  These efforts might also lead to progress in the stalled trade talks.