Malaysia Matters Podcast

It has been apparent for some time that Anwar and his cohorts have been unable to get the backing needed to fulfill his promises. After many weeks promising that he would topple the government on the 16th, Anwar and his supporters backed of that statement last week. But now, after failing to come through, he is saying that he has had sufficient defectors to do the job all along, but that they will be named in “a few day’s time.”

We’ve previously discussed Anwar’s links to terrorism here at Malaysia Matters, but just what else can his campaign to destabilise the government be described as other than another form of terrorism? The Malaysian economy has been in decline since the March Opposition successes at the ballot box, and the more recent turbulence has caused investors to be yet again even more cautious “because of perceived political instability.” -Instability that Anwar has instigated for political gain. And having dug this hole, Anwar doesn’t inspire the confidence necessary to get Malaysia out having been unable to do so as Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister during the 1997 economic crisis.  

What is behind this disregard for the well-being of the country Anwar claims himself fit to lead? Anwar has been able to play down the case against him for sodomy and it is becoming clear that in his perverse and selfish see-saw of promises turned lies, the dominate motivation is his own ambition, and the casualty is Malaysia itself.

The leaders of the Barisan Nasional (BN) component parties are definately calling Anwar Ibrahim’s bluff:

Umno Vice-President Datuk Seri Mohd Ali Rustam said the people should now get back to work rather than be engrossed in listening to Anwar’s theatrics about forming a new government.

He said the time has come for the people to no longer pay attention to what Anwar had to say as it was only a waste of time.

“With the date Sept 16 coming to pass, it is clear that what has been mentioned (about forming new government) is just play-acting,” he said.

Umno supreme council member Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal also dismissed as mere lies the claims by Anwar about having a list of BN crossovers.

“This is the Ramadan month, an auspicious month… let’s not create a situation that can affect the people’s confidence,” said Shafie who is also Unity, Culture, Arts and Heritage Minister.

Umno information chief Tan Sri Muhammad Muhd Taib also said that Anwar’s failure to form the new government today showed that he had no credibility and was only out to create trouble.

“He is desperate to grab power in an unethical way; this goes to show that he is hungry for power,” he said.

So the question remains: is Anwar trying to bluff his way to power?  If he has the votes why not reveal them?

Given his past promises and strong words, his credibility is on the line.  Malayisans, and the world, will be watching to see how he responds.

Interesting commentary from Mushtak Parker in Arab News.  Parker gives a background to the current upheaval:

On Aug. 26, Anwar, the controversial former deputy prime minister and finance minister under Mahathir Mohamed, returned to mainstream politics after winning an expected landslide by-election in the Permatang Pauh constituency which was vacated by his wife Wan Azizah Ismail. For almost a decade, Anwar was in the political wilderness and banned from active politics following his conviction on corruption and other charges, some of which were overturned on appeal. The real reason was that he tried to oust Mahathir in an attempted palace coup which backfired badly, suggesting Anwar’s political inexperience and poor judgment, especially in selecting his close advisers, who seemed to be more interested in instant power and money than the interests of the Malays, Malaysians and the country in general.

Anwar is a fiery orator, who uses to tremendous advantage the skill of speaking honed during the days of his youth when he was the leader of the Malaysian Muslim Youth Organization (ABIM), which had close ties with Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood.

Although critical of the ruling party, Parker also cautions against buying into the hype and propoganda:

However, there is a lot of misinformation and hype on all sides. On the economy, for instance, the fundamentals and statistics show that the Malaysian economy, despite the credit crunch, is faring much better than the government’s critics suggest.

[. . .]

Today will show that Anwar will fail to deliver his ultimatum or pledge, which will be discarded to the scrapheap of political hot air. In Malaysian politics, Anwar may have stirred a hornet’s nest. But the reality is that most Malaysians remain ambivalent about him. More worrying for him is that, in a recent poll, more than half of the Malaysians surveyed did not support him or were not satisfied with his performance as opposition politician. Similarly, perhaps more significantly, many Malaysian youth remain unswayed by Anwar, who after all is in his sixties.

As Josh has noted, a ruling party with the Islmacist PAS at its heart is very troubling.  In addition, Malaysia is an important trading partner with the US and Anwar’s troubling anti-American and antisemitic conspiracy theories don’t bode well for that relationship.

Anwar is clearly skillful at political theater, but at some point theater has to give way to substance. He is seeking to ride a wave of emotion into power, but we would be smart to think long and hard about what this would mean in practice.

On this, the biggest day in Malaysia in a generation, the big news is that there is no news.

That’s a remarkable development, as today, 16 September 2008, is the day that opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim declared he would unseat the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition for the first time in Malaysian history. Ibrahim picked the date to coincide with the aftermath of Merdeka Day, on which Malaysian independence is celebrated. Supposedly, in the flush of patriotism after Merdeka, the Malaysian electorate — and more important, the Malaysian MPs — would turn toward Ibrahim’s coalition, usher in a new Malaysia, etc., etc.

It hasn’t happened that way at all. On what was supposed to be the culminating day of Ibrahim’s long climb from prison to power, he was reduced to simply announcing that, though he hasn’t taken power, he could — because he has the votes in the parliament to make it happen. The man whom Ibrahim wants to unseat — Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi — has riposted with a series of eminently reasonable questions. Among them: Who are the parliamentary defectors? And why not call a vote to form a new government?

This story is far from over, and Malaysia Matters will be following it closely. It’s something that Americans ought to care about very much, though the mainstream media will relegate it to the back pages: as we’ve discussed here before, Anwar Ibrahim’s major coalition partner is the Islamist PAS party. The PAS is probably the single strongest party within Ibrahim’s coalition — certainly it’s the only one capable of national partisan activity outside that coalition — and it’s bad news from an American perspective. Having implemented shari’a within the states it controls throughout Malaysia, and having called for volunteers to assist the Taliban against American forces in Afghanistan, the prospect of it taking power — even under Anwar Ibrahim’s aegis — is chilling indeed. Given Malaysia’s strategic importance to the United States, this is not a prospect we may take lightly.

Will Anwar Ibrahim take power? Will Barisan Nasional hold the line? Stay tuned. Ibrahim’s deadline has come and gone — but this story is not over yet.

If you’re following Malaysia — and you’re reading Malaysia Matters, after all! — you know that this is the moment of decision for the Barisan National coalition that has held power since Malaysian independence, and for the opposition coalition led by Anwar Ibrahim that promised to seize power tomorrow. In this portentous moment for Malaysia, we are fortunate to be joined for a very special podcast by Mary Kissel, editorial page editor of the Wall Street Journal-Asia. Ms Kissel is based in Hong Kong, and just returned from Kuala Lumpur. She shares her thoughts and impressions of Malaysian events with Malaysia Matters readers here.

You may listen to this podcast here, you may subscribe to our podcast RSS feed, or you may subscribe via iTunes.

 

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Hot off the press!!! - A must read from Bloomberg news service…Emphasis has been added:

Anwar to Miss Malaysia Takeover Deadline, Eroding Credibility

By Angus Whitley

(Bloomberg) — Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim delayed a plan to unseat the government, wounding his credibility after repeated promises he’d be in charge by next week.

Anwar’s three-party People Alliance will miss a self-imposed deadline of Sept. 16 to take power, it said in a statement. He said as recently as Sept. 10 that a plan to attract enough government lawmakers to his opposition to win a parliamentary majority was on schedule.

Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s ruling coalition this week sent a third of its lawmakers to Taiwan for what it called a study trip, making it harder for Anwar to orchestrate their defection. Still, the former deputy premier has said since May he has enough backers to oust the government, and failure to meet his timetable may cause him to lose support, some analysts said.

“People will be more cautious about his future statements regarding any attempts at crossing over to his party,” said Mohamed Mustafa Ishak, professor of politics at Universiti Utara Malaysia. “Things will be much more difficult. It’s very important he has credible statements to support his argument.”

Anwar, 61, deputy leader from 1993 to 1998, will now have to balance efforts to woo government lawmakers with preparing for his trial on charges of having sex with a 23-year-old man.

A hearing will take place in a Kuala Lumpur court on Sept. 24 to determine whether the trial will be elevated to the High Court. Sex between men is illegal in Malaysia, and violators face a maximum prison sentence of 20 years. Anwar has pleaded not guilty to the charge.

Anwar will remain free, as bail was not revoked today in a Wednesday court hearing on the sodomy charge against him. The next date his case will be heard is September 24th when it will be determined if it will be transferred to a Kuala Lumpur high court.   

But again, the more profound case he is pleading is outside the courthouse. In spite of his rhetoric and emphatic promises that he will bring down the government on the 16th of this month (next Tuesday), cracks are beginning to appear. Comments by both Anwar and his supporters of late have been hedging that promise.

Asked by the star if his promise of the 16th would be fulfilled, the Star on Tuesday reported that Anwar said, “It is too soon to say”.  

Not quite the steady assurance that had been found on the campaign trail. And Further slippage here:

“After discussion with (coalition partners) PAS and DAP, the date can be postponed even though our target was September 16 previously,” Anwar was quoted as saying in the Star newspaper on Wednesday.

And for good measure a PAS commissioner offered more specific excuses:

In Kuala Terengganu, state PAS commissioner Datuk Mustafa Ali said the Sept 16 plan may just not materialize for now, based on technical and political aspects.

Anwar, he said, may have to wait for a while for his ambitious plan to take over the Federal Government.

Mustafa, who spoke as political analyst and not as his capacity of a leader in the party, said the two reasons that he saw would delay the process was technical where a change in the Government could not take place without the vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister or his resignation.

“Parliament has adjourned for the fasting month and, as such, no confidence vote can be tabled. Besides, the Prime Minister has continuously said he would not relinquish his post,” he said.

From the political aspect, Mustafa noted that defection of Barisan MPs had never happened.

Mustafa said PKR had also not officially consulted PAS on the proposed takeover of the Government.

Hmm…

Seems like the writing is on the wall. Neither Anwar’s supporters, nor he himself seem convinced that he will take over the government on the timetable he promised. We can look forward to plenty of excuses, but once again, if Anwar cannot garner the support now, then when?

Anwar is under a great deal of pressure today. His next court appearance in the ongoing sodomy scandal is tomorrow and holds the prospect that his bail might be revoked. 

But much worse for him than that is the doubtful outlook on his collecting the 30 Barisan Nasional defectors necessary to topple the government in the span of this next week to hit his appointed date of the 16th. So far no defections have been announced. 

A lot has been staked on that promise. He won his district handily and has declared a mandate for change based upon that. But if he is unable to get the support necessary for that change now, while momentum is with him, when else will it happen?

The 16th is going to come up awfully fast…

It is interesting to note that a couple of Anwar’s victories this year also mark points of downward spiral in the Malaysian economy. 

… the cost of insuring Malaysian bonds against default has risen sharply since Anwar’s coalition took a over a third of the seats in Malaysia’s election in March, increasing political risk. The 5-year CDS stood at 140.96 basis points on Monday, up from 91.85 on March 7, the day before the election.

That means it costs almost $141,000 to insure $10 million of Malaysian bonds against default.

According to Bank Negara’s latest statistics, some US$1.1bn (about RM3.8bn) of foreign funds exited from the country during the period Aug 15-29.

The exodus of foreign funds have plagued the weakening ringgit. Besides, a stronger greenback has also contributed to the departure of foreign funds.

Since the dollar began its upward trend in late July, the ringgit has been steadily on the slide. With the local currency going downhill, coupled with the lacklustre performances of the local markets, it is natural for profit-minded foreign investors to move their money elsewhere.

The ringgit has depreciated by about 6% since late July, from RM3.25 to RM3.45 to the dollar, with short-term prospects less than optimistic.

The highly unpredictable domestic politics and sluggish growth have gloomed the outlook of local markets among foreign investors, while the central bank’s decision not to increase the interest rates in late July has further consolidated their determination to withdraw from the country.

Another organization for which Anwar has provided leadership is The World Assembly of Muslim Youth (WAMY). Background on WAMY courtesy of www.discoverthenetworks.org.

The World Assembly of Muslim Youth is also one of the vehicles through which the Saudi Wahhabi government funds Islamic extremism and international terrorism. WAMY was co-founded by Kamal Helwabi, a former senior member of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and by Osama bin Laden’s nephew, Abdullah bin Laden (who served as WAMY’s President through 2002 and is now its Treasurer). WAMY raises funds for the terrorist group Hamas, and in October 2002 made Hamas leader Khaled Mash’al an “honored guest” at a Muslim youth and globalization conference held in Riyadh. WAMY also helps finance the Kashmir insurgency against India, characterizing it as a “liberation” movement. 

A Saudi opposition group reports that WAMY disseminates literature encouraging “religious hatred and violence against Jews, Christians, Shi’a and Ashaari Muslims.” As WAMY puts it, this literature is expressly designed ”to teach our children to love taking revenge on the Jews and the oppressors, and teach them that our youngsters will liberate Palestine and Jerusalem when they go back to Islam and make jihad for the sake of Allah.” Some WAMY publications have included interviews with Saudi clerics such as Ayed al-Qarni, an adviser to Saudi Prince Fahd. In one such interview, al-Qarni stated that he prays for America’s destruction daily, that he encourages students to go to Iraq to fight against U.S. forces, and that those who cannot go should at least contribute money to the cause. Another WAMY publication features a list of “martyrs” who have attacked and murdered Israelis; one of the individuals on this list is a man who drove 14 bus passengers off a cliff as a member of the group “Heroes from Palestine.” 

Investigations of the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center uncovered, in an apartment of one of the terrorists, an envelope marked “WAMY” along with a training manual on how to set up terrorist cells in other countries and stage attacks.

WAMY came under FBI scrutiny after 9/11, when it was determined that a radiologist, Dr. Al Badr al-Hamzi, whose credit card was found among the possessions of the hijackers, was receiving funding from the organization. The Senate Finance Committee requested that the IRS examine WAMY’s U.S. branch for links to terrorism. WAMY was also named in a trillion-dollar lawsuit by the families of the victims of 9/11.

In May 2004, federal law-enforcement, immigration, and anti-terrorism agents raided WAMY’s Alexandria, Virginia office, seizing all of its computers and hard drives, and arresting a volunteer board member, Ibrahim Abdullah, on immigration charges. WAMY had been operating out of the office of Jamal Barzinji, who was involved with a total of seven organizations that were raided by federal agents in connection with terrorist financing. After the raid on its office, WAMY likened itself to the YMCA, saying that it was interested only in “youth education, youth development, and serving the Muslim community.” 

Though WAMY’s activities in the United States were derailed, its operations elsewhere in the world continue unabated — in many instances with the help of other, likeminded organizations. For example, WAMY’s efforts in Somalia are supported by  the “Christian charities” Novib and Oxfam, which are based in the United Kingdom and Holland, respectively. 

One of WAMY’s closest affiliates is the European Council for Fatwa and Research, which aims to spread fundamentalist Islam and implement Shari’a (Islamic Law) worldwide. Another organization with intimate ties to WAMY is the Muslim Students’ Association of the U.S. and Canada. And four directors of the International Institute of Islamic Thought (IIIT) – including Anwar Ibrahim, a terror-supporting Malaysian Islamist who co-founded IIIT – are trustees of WAMY.  

In December 1999, WAMY announced at a press conference in Saudi Arabia that it “was extending both moral and financial support to the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) ”to help it construct its $3.5 million headquarters in Washington, D.C.”  WAMY also agreed to “introduce CAIR to Saudi philanthropists and recommend their financial support for the headquarters project.” In 2002, CAIR and WAMY jointly announced, again from Saudi Arabia, their collaboration on a $1 million public-relations campaign.

Islam scholar Stephen Schwartz calls WAMY “the Saudi equivalent of the Hitler Youth: a hate-mongering, ultra-extremist group preaching, among other niceties, that Shia Muslims are not real Muslims, but products of a Jewish conspiracy.” The website Militant Islam Monitor characterizes the organization as “part of the Saudi Wahhabist ‘Jihad through conversion’ drive.”