Malaysia Matters Podcast

According to Teng Hock Nan, Vice President of Gerakan, 60% of his members want out of BN because of disagreement with racial polices if BN is ”not willing to initiate drastic changes.” 

Gerakan’s primary constituency is a Chinese minority and only has two members in parliament, but leaving would be a crack in the damn with others soon to go as well.

DAP parliamentary leader, Lim Kit Siang, part of Anwar’s PKR coalition, projects who would be next:

“I dare say that if given the opportunity to voice out, it is not just over 60 per cent of the grass roots in Gerakan but also over 60 per cent of the membership in MCA and MIC would want their parties to leave Barisan Nasional – and the percentage will be even higher for the Barisan Nasional component parties in Sabah and Sarawak, even exceeding 80%, ” Lim said Sunday (28 Sept) at a ceramah in Serdang, Selangor.

Lim said the UMNO putra leadership, despite the major blow suffered by UMNO political hegemony in the March 8 general election by a multi-racial and multi-religious Pakatan Rakyat, has proved to be utterly insensitive, blind and deaf to the legitimate aspirations of all Malaysians, including ordinary Malays.

So when might this happen, and would Gerekan jump over to the PKR?

Gerakan Secretary General Chia Kwang Chye said party officials are likely to discuss the possibility of leaving the coalition at their annual congress on Oct. 11. Teng said the party has set no deadline for a decision, adding that it has no immediate plans to join opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim’s three-party alliance.

 

UMNO has decided to postpone its December leadership election until March. Described as a “cooling period”, the move seems likely to provide stability though next March. The government has also decided to cut gasoline prices for the second time, since raising them earlier this year:

‘In the last month global oil prices have been fluctuating but on an average it is lower than the previous price average (in Aug),’ Mr Abdullah said in a statement.

‘The government is aware that many will be travelling back to their home towns for the festive season from this weekend,’ ‘(We) hope that this price reduction will alleviate the people’s burden, especially while celebrating Eid al-Fitr,’ he said.

This too, seems likely to promote Badawi’s stability. A smart move to take away one of the recommendations that have been made by Anwar.

For the good of Malaysia, UMNO membership needs to seriously explore alternate contenders for Prime Minister. Badawi’s choice of Najib will succeed him isn’t passing muster with the citizenry, according to the findings of a recent poll:

Between Sept 11 and 22, Merdeka Centre carried out a leadership performance perception on a cross section of 1,002 people of voting age from the three main ethnic communities in the country.

Among the questions asked was: “Between Najib Razak and Anwar Ibrahim, who do you think makes a better prime minister?”

Najib garnered a 33.8 per cent average total support among the three major races. Anwar edged him by a margin of less than six per cent — he garnered an average total of 39.3 per cent.

The difference is more conspicuous when the show of support is broken down according to the ethnicity of those polled.

The split was apparent among racial lines, with Najib drawing as much as 47.3 per cent support from the Malay community. Anwar trailed with just 32.5 per cent.

The opposition leader gained greater support among non-Malays, receiving the support of 37.4 per cent of Chinese voters and a whopping 85 per cent from the Indians.

In comparison, Najib only won the approval of 18.4 per cent of Chinese voters and just five per cent of Indians thought he would make a better prime minister.

Of note was the high percentage of voters who remained non-commital. More than 40 per cent of Chinese voters polled expressed no preference.

And this is providing easy fodder for Anwar who said that ”…however unpopular Abdullah is now, Najib is more unpopular. He has a major problem of credibility. Many unexplained cases which does insinuate his involvement in [an] earlier murder case he has to explain…” 

 

 

Matters in Malaysia seem to be stable at the moment. Anwar, after missing his date with taking over the Gov’t by way of defectors, is said to be backing off, after not coming forth with any of the 31 names of those defectors; nor have any come out publically. It appears that no one, besides Anwar, even knows who might be on the ‘916′ list. Anwar has also refused to set a new date.

This has resulted in a bit of mocking toward Anwar inside Malaysia. The Malaysia Insider has two articles out today, Anwar backtracks on power bid and the missed deadline. While Anwar is appealing to the public for patience, the ruling party UMNO is holding a special meeting on Friday. All in all things appear like they are not going to change, and parliment is due to reconvene on October 13th.

In other news, the foreign minister of Malaysia has proposed an international conference to confront anti-Islam sentiment, and that the conference be held in the US:

…the United States was chosen as the venue for the convention because of the polemic on Islam in that country besides the wide media coverage that it would generate.

Sean-Paul Kelly has been traveling in Malaysia, and has a light-hearted post on the Agonist.

Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has announced that he is scraping the 2010 plan for transition and that UMNO will delay a leadership vote from December this year until March 2009. He hasn’t specified exactly when he will step down.

 

Good idea. Anwar’s deadlines are doing real harm - and not just to Malaysians unsure about the stability of their government.

Anwar can ill-afford to further deteriorate his credibility through failed expectations.

But promises aren’t his only worry. The secrecy surrounding his claim of 31 defectors has people asking questions. For instance, if the 31 have conviction in their desire to cross over, why not show some strength of character and come clean? Why not make the defection public?  And really, what is the likelihood that not a single name of of 31 would have been leaked? Finally, is it plausible that PAS and DAP leadership would not have demanded to know by now?

A large reason for the success that the PKR has enjoyed is backlash against the diminished credibility of BN. But that backlash may be dimmed through contradictory statements, unfulfilled expectations, and questionable secrecy as raised above. 

So what will Anwar do? 

“If he has the numbers, I suppose that the best thing, the easiest thing for him to do is to defeat the government budget bill… So, I think actually he would lie low now,” Wong said. “If he has the numbers, he perhaps would pull it off on late October. I mean, by defeating the budget bill, that’s effectively a no confidence on the government. I think, like it or not, his failure in fulfilling his plan has eroded a bit of his credibility.” 

With clear inability to instigate a vote of no confidence by today’s most recent self-imposed deadline, Anwar’s camp has been circulating rumors that they have been conducting talks with the government, purportedly over transfer of power. Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi denies this. 

Having utterly lost the momentum gained in Anwar’s by-election victory, PKR seem now resulute to camaign on rumor-mongering in hopes that their fractious coalition may hold together long enough to completely eliminate public confidence in the government. But competing interests have from the start been a burden within PKR. Under the strain, Anwar set aside time today to reassure PAS leadership that their place in the next government would be significant. 

Parliament reconvenes on October 13th, a date seemingly not that far off. But amidst the already tenuous nature of his coalition, his failure of a grand scale to come through on critical deadlines already has eroded a great deal of confidence in him. Anwar is in real danger of watching all his best laid plans come to naught. The 13th may not seem far off, but a lot may happen between now and then.

 

Anwar Ibrahim has another day in court coming

-This time in an anti-defamation suit he filed against Dr Chandra Muzaffar, president of the International Movement for a Just World. Anwar wants RM 10 million for statements made by Chandra in two different publications according to a report by Bernama: in The Star under the headline “Disaster if Anwar is PM”, and in the New Straits Times under the headline, “Chandra breaks silence on Anwar” on March 5.

The next date for case management has been set by The High Court for November 19. 

    

 

In his first big decision since becoming Finance Minister last week, Deputy Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak announced that Malaysia would not re-peg the ringgit to the U.S. dollar despite calls by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad who proposed it necessary to do so on Saturday to mitigate the impact of a declining dollar.

“I wish to categorically state that we have no intention to re-peg the ringgit now or in the future. We are committed to allow the market to determine the value of the ringgit,” Deputy Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak said.

He said it was impossible for Malaysia not to be affected by the financial crisis in the United States as 20 percent of Malaysia’s exports go to the U.S. market.

Mahathir pegged the ringgit to the dollar in 1998 at 3.8 to the dollar during the Asian financial crisis. It remained there until 2005 when Abdullah Ahmad Badawi removed the peg. The ringgit is now about 3.4 to the dollar.

Najib is reportedly meeting with US fund managers in New York this week. 

 

Still ready as ever to stir the unease of Malaysians, Anwar has declared a new deadline for a shift in power. After utterly falling flat on his promise to be at the helm by September 16th, he now is demanding parliament convene an emergency session by Tuesday the 23rd so as to enable a vote of no confidence against Ahmad Badawi.  

The continued pressure from Anwar has led to a group of Malaysians to file a police report against him. The group of 15 to 25 individuals calling themselves ’Caring Public Which Loves Peace’ want to see police investigate Anwar for sedition for creating “… a near chaotic situation and panic among Malaysians. He posed a threat against the country’s economy and shook the confidence of foreign investors.”

The group claims that many Malaysian’s lives have been disrupted out of fear that the country could devolve into unrest, causing rushes for household goods and families keeping children home from school. Wan Abidin, a likely Umno member was reported as saying that the motivation of the report was not due to party bias but that ”We are all lodging this report against Anwar as concerned Malaysians who are worried for the stability and peace of the country.”"He is threatening the stability and peace of the country with his repeated allegations of a change in government,” said Abidin.

 

The issue of confidence and stability as a prerequisite for growth seems to be a theme after Anwar Ibrahim failed to deliver on his promise to capture the reigns of power on September 16.  The government is moving forward with a plan to focus on the important issues and ultimately a smooth transition:

In a minor Cabinet reshuffle today, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi named his deputy Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak as finance minister.

Abdullah, who was the finance minister, will take over Najib’s defence ministry portfolio.

In making the announcement yesterday, Abdullah and Najib also said the transition plan in which the two leaders have agreed on remains intact.

By giving his deputy heavier responsibilities, the PM will hope to put an end to speculation over the transition plan which will see Najib taking power by 2010.

The swap in portfolios was announced after today’s Cabinet meeting.

This, they argue, is in stark contrast to Anwar who seems intent on destabilizig things in order to win a political advantage:

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi today described Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) de-facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as a “threat to the nation’s economy and maybe safety”.

He accused Anwar of deceiving the public by saying one thing and doing another, and of berating the country to the extent of discouraging investors.Speaking to reporters after the cabinet meeting yesterday, Abdullah said: “We are facing inflation and in the midst of this, what Anwar is doing has resulted in fund managers discouraging investors from investing in Malaysia due to the uncertain political scenario.

“By talking about changing governments, Anwar has muddled the economy as some investors have been advised to stay away from the country for the next 10 years, and to wait and see where the country is headed. What he is doing has affected the government, the economy and workers.”

Has the political momentum changed now that the 16th has passed?  It would seem the ball is in Anwar’s court.  If he doesn’t produce something more than promises soon, his critics charges will have been proved accurate.